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Guide · Donor Watch

Build a bid/no-bid decision from evidence rather than optimism

Many losing bids were never winnable. A bid/no-bid decision built on evidence, with hard eligibility checked first, saves weeks of wasted effort.

Responsible principals: Prof. Wisdom Gagakuma and Kenneth Gagakuma6-minute readUpdated

Practice 06: Bids, proposals & intelligence

The short answer

Check hard eligibility first: legal eligibility, minimum turnover and experience, mandatory certifications, the deadline and conflicts of interest. Any “no” ends the discussion, whatever else looks attractive. Then score weighted criteria on evidence, not hope, and find the evidence for your weakest criteria before committing.

See the worked exampleOpen the free tool

Why optimism wins the meeting

Bid decisions are often made by the people who most want to bid. Without a structure, a strong relationship or an exciting brief outweighs a missing certification or an impossible deadline.

Hard eligibility first

These are yes-or-no tests. Legal eligibility, thresholds, mandatory certifications, a compliant response by the deadline, and no conflict of interest. A single “no” is a no-bid; a “not sure” means getting written confirmation before deciding.

Then the weighted criteria

Strategic fit, client knowledge, competitive position, capability, team availability, past-performance evidence, price and contract risk. Score each on evidence you could show the buyer.

A worked example

In the bid/no-bid decision matrix, an evaluation tender scores 64 out of 100, a HOLD. One eligibility point, a mandatory certification, is uncertain. The weakest criteria point straight to the evidence to find: a list of likely bidders and your edge over each, someone who has worked with the client, and confirmed availability for every key expert.

What this guide does not cover

Scores are judgements. Their value is in making the discussion explicit, not in the number.

Examples in this guide are illustrative, not client results. Figures come from the free tool’s worked example; change the inputs in the tool to see your own.

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