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Files of short brushed-steel blades stand on a pale stone terrace and close, one behind another, on a single upright of ruby glass at the foot of a curved concrete wall. The sea lies beyond the terrace at the right.

Theory of change template

See where the chain breaks.

Try the template
What the film shows, in words
  1. See where the chain breaks.
  2. 3 activities. 3 outputs. 2 outcomes. One goal.
  3. Six gaps. Output 3 points at an outcome that is not there.
  4. Linked to outcome 2: four gaps.
  5. An outcome is a change, not a task: three. One more activity: two.
  6. Check the logic. Then write the proposal.

The demo: the worked example, one mended link at a time

ExampleA youth employment programme (illustrative). The reworded outcome and the added activity are invented for the demo.

Step 1 of 4

Six logic gaps. One of two pathways is whole.

  1. Co-design curricula with employersActivity 1
  2. Recruit and train instructorsActivity 2
  3. Negotiate internship agreementsActivity 3
  4. Courses delivered with employer-designed contentOutput 1
  5. Graduates placed in internshipsOutput 2
  6. Mentoring network for young entrepreneursOutput 3
  7. Graduates find and keep paid work …Outcome 1
  8. Train 1,200 young people in market …Outcome 2
  9. 3?

GoalMore young people in the target districts earn a decent living.

Pathway to outcome 2

If we [activities missing], we will deliver [outputs missing]. If that happens, then train 1,200 young people in market skills, contributing to the goal: more young people in the target districts earn a decent living.

3 activities, 3 outputs, 2 outcomes. All six logic gaps belong to outcome 2 and output 3.

Now your programme, from the goal backwards.

Goal, then outcomes, outputs and activities. Link each to the level above by its number. Set out the goal, the outcomes you expect and the outputs and activities that lead to them, with indicators and assumptions. The builder checks the logic: outcomes that read like activities, outputs linked to nothing and outcomes nothing produces.

Goal

Every pathway arrives here.

Outcomes

Outcomes

  1. 01
  2. 02

Outputs

Outputs

  1. 01
  2. 02
  3. 03

Activities

Activities

  1. 01
  2. 02
  3. 03

6logic gaps

Pathway to outcome 1

If we co-design curricula with employers; recruit and train instructors; negotiate internship agreements, we will deliver courses delivered with employer-designed content; graduates placed in internships. If that happens, and local employers keep hiring at current levels, then graduates find and keep paid work or self-employment, contributing to the goal: more young people in the target districts earn a decent living.

  • 3 activities
  • 3 outputs
  • 2 outcomes
Go to a gap

It checks the structure of your logic, not whether the change will really happen.

The logframe, the logic check and the theory in sentences.

Live2 outcomes · 6 logic gaps

2outcomes
3outputs
3activities
6logic gaps
Logframe
LevelResultIndicatorAssumption or link
GoalMore young people in the target districts earn a decent living.––
Outcome 1Graduates find and keep paid work or self-employment% of graduates in work six months after completionLocal employers keep hiring at current levels
Outcome 2Train 1,200 young people in market skillsNumber trainedMissing
Output 1Courses delivered with employer-designed contentCourses delivered to standardOutcome 1
Output 2Graduates placed in internshipsInternship placementsOutcome 1
Output 3Mentoring network for young entrepreneursMissingOutcome 3
Activity 1Co-design curricula with employers–Output 1
Activity 2Recruit and train instructors–Output 1
Activity 3Negotiate internship agreements–Output 2

Logic check

  • Check: Outcome 2 reads like an activity: “Train 1,200 young people in market skills”.An outcome is a change in people or institutions, not something the programme does.
  • Gap: Nothing produces outcome 2.Link at least one output to it, or remove it.
  • Check: Outcome 2 has no assumption.What must hold true outside your control for it to happen?
  • Gap: Output 3 is linked to outcome 3, which does not exist.
  • Check: No activity delivers output 3.
  • Check: Output 3 has no indicator.

Theory of change, in sentences

Pathway to outcome 1

If we co-design curricula with employers; recruit and train instructors; negotiate internship agreements, we will deliver courses delivered with employer-designed content; graduates placed in internships. If that happens, and local employers keep hiring at current levels, then graduates find and keep paid work or self-employment, contributing to the goal: more young people in the target districts earn a decent living.

Pathway to outcome 2

If we [activities missing], we will deliver [outputs missing]. If that happens, then train 1,200 young people in market skills, contributing to the goal: more young people in the target districts earn a decent living.

Your editable templateTheory of change and logframeTry this form

Practice 06: Bids, proposals & intelligenceFree · instant results on this pageTool owner: Prof. Wisdom Gagakuma and Kenneth GagakumaVersion 1.0 ·

GKM Strategic Advisory & AI

Theory of change, in sentences

Your organisation

Pathway to outcome 1

If we co-design curricula with employers; recruit and train instructors; negotiate internship agreements, we will deliver courses delivered with employer-designed content; graduates placed in internships. If that happens, and local employers keep hiring at current levels, then graduates find and keep paid work or self-employment, contributing to the goal: more young people in the target districts earn a decent living.

Pathway to outcome 2

If we [activities missing], we will deliver [outputs missing]. If that happens, then train 1,200 young people in market skills, contributing to the goal: more young people in the target districts earn a decent living.

DOCX One paragraph for every outcome, in the tool's own words, as it stands now.
LevelResultIndicatorAssumption or link
GoalMore young people in the target districts earn a decent living.––
Outcome 1Graduates find and keep paid work or self-employment% of graduates in work six months after completionLocal employers keep hiring at current levels
Outcome 2Train 1,200 young people in market skillsNumber trainedMissing
Output 1Courses delivered with employer-designed contentCourses delivered to standardOutcome 1
Output 2Graduates placed in internshipsInternship placementsOutcome 1
Output 3Mentoring network for young entrepreneursMissingOutcome 3
Activity 1Co-design curricula with employers–Output 1
Activity 2Recruit and train instructors–Output 1
Activity 3Negotiate internship agreements–Output 2
XLSX The logframe as a sheet: one row for every level, with its indicator and its assumption or link.

Your editable template

Theory of change and logframe, by email once delivery is connected.

Theory of change and logframe (DOCX + spreadsheet) with the logic-gap flags

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Two concrete walls with an open gap between them onto the sea. The near wall’s shadow lies across the floor and stops short of the far wall, which has a strip of ruby glass at its edge.
The tool finds where a piece is missing. It does not prove that the next one would follow.

How the logic is checked, and its limits.

Method

  1. 01

    Outputs link to outcomes and activities to outputs by number; broken or missing links are errors.

  2. 02

    Outcomes that begin with delivery verbs (train, conduct, deliver) are flagged as activities in disguise.

  3. 03

    Every outcome and output should have an indicator; every outcome an assumption.

  4. 04

    An outcome whose words describe delivery (trained, delivered, held, distributed, installed) is flagged as an output in disguise.

  5. 05

    An outcome that names revenue, reached through an output or an activity that names training, is flagged unless evidence is stated beside it. The tool looks for the words; it does not judge the evidence.

What it cannot tell you

  • It checks the structure of your logic, not whether the change will really happen.
  • Donor formats differ; transfer the content to your donor’s template.
  • Indicators still need full definitions (see the MEL indicator builder).

Quality ruleRespect donor format; do not equate activities with outcomes.

When the logic holds, the proposal still has to be written.

Indicators still need full definitions (see the MEL indicator builder). MEL indicator builder & quality check

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